Ministry: Iron and steel industry restructuring and development action plan is expected to introduce in July
According to voice of the economy, the transaction is reported that the Ministry of industry and the Ministry of public opinion, after three months of summary, modification and improvement, the iron and steel industry restructuring and development action plan (2015-2017) has been developed, and is about to enter the final stages of review, is expected to introduce in July. It is worth noting that the release of the action plan for the draft of the first draft of the plan was adjusted. Media reports, the Ministry of industry and the Ministry of raw materials industry, deputy director Luo Tiejun said, the action plan mainly involved in the production of excess capacity, the integration of two, mergers and acquisitions and other 7 aspects, these are good for the formation of steel industry.
Revealed from the restructuring of the steel industry development plan of action (2015-2017) "of the content, whether to the China Iron and steel industry downturn in the key the? National policy whether can let the iron and steel industry out of the industry downturn? Which companies could take the lead out of the shadow of the industry. Huatai Securities Ministry of energy and mines director, iron and steel industry, chief analyst Chen Li in this regard for the professional interpretation.
Chen Li: from the point of supply level. Plan points have several, the first, involving excess capacity, the integration of two, economic restructuring and other 7 aspects, the capacity of this proposed after 3 years of efforts, to compress 80000000 tons of steel production capacity, the current total capacity of 11 tons, if 80000000 tons of production capacity to be compressed, the industry supply is undoubtedly very big positive. In addition, plans to build 2 to 3 intelligent demonstration plant, to enhance the integration of the two, in line with the development trend of high-end manufacturing equipment 2025. In the industry restructuring and the number of enterprises, a clear control in the 300 or so, the total amount of a property. The coal consumption of zero growth, total pollutant emissions decreased, so that environmental protection automatically unqualified enterprises out of the market.
From the near future, iron and steel investment continued to fall, only a sharp rebound in iron making investment. Steel private investment fell sharply, the decline is greater than the average decline in the whole industry, showing that private investment is accelerating the withdrawal of steel. Whether these phenomena indicate that the iron and steel industry boost also takes a long time, Chen Li believes that the industry's future is concerned, the need for a certain time, but the time point of understanding, in addition to the supply side of the shrinkage, to see the changes in demand, but the overall trend is good.
Chen Gimli: national capacity expansion peak in 2008 to 2012 and 2012 to 2015, nearly three years of investment, the overall in the downward trend, the bank in the depths of the iron and steel industry will continue to limit loan, industry market decline also played a certain role in promoting. At present, the low level of steel prices, gross margins continue to decline, lower production capacity, so that some high cost steel mills, or high environmental pollution enterprises, had to choose to shut down the blast furnace or layoffs, in disguise to accelerate the capital into the iron and steel industry, and the existing resource companies to withdraw.
Some experts pointed out that the new standard of China's iron and steel industry is the world's most stringent standards, China's iron and steel industry is a comprehensive green development of China's iron and steel industry, the hope and way out. Iron and steel industry on the path of green development needs capital and technology, will not put more small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises out of the market? Chen Li said, for small and medium-sized enterprises and need to through a variety of ways enhance green management level. But if it really is not up to the requirements, but also the trend of market elimination.
Chen Li: first of all, China from this year onwards implementation world the most stringent standards, for those who value only, ignore environmental protection, and other aspects of the small and medium-sized enterprise caused great influence. In addition, the upgrading of the concept of green development and financial technology, the small size of the enterprise, the maximum pressure. Whether it is capital, or their own transformation, they need to be very large. State-owned enterprises in this relatively better, especially in the green development, Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and steel, Hebei steel and other major steel mills, as well as iron and steel enterprises, plant construction is very good, in line with the trend of the future development of green, have a first mover advantage.
Chen Li said that overall, the iron and steel industry mergers and acquisitions will continue to improve the concentration of the industry. Before the national planning, the proportion of market concentration of the top ten steel mills in our country is less than 40%, while the developed countries are more than 60%. If the future of mergers and acquisitions or central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, the integration of state-owned enterprises, is expected to focus on more than 50%. In addition, the iron and steel industry transformation and development plan of action, it is better to have 400 steel mills, and now China's steel mills are about 500, 600, of which 200 are even less than 1000000 tons of capacity, these companies will become the object of market integration.
Some analysts believe that the future in China's economic structure adjustment and transition process, steel in the field of military, aerospace, high-speed rail and other play more and more important role. Gaona is casting high temperature alloy and wrought superalloy series products mainly, from the application perspective, the scale of the aerospace industry slants small. Daye special steel in bearing steel, gear steel sales, product application in the field of aviation, aerospace, weapon system. What special steel enterprises will have a better application prospect and performance?
Chen Li: research shows that in recent years the best is lower orders and full of growth determined, partial Aeronautics and Astronautics war industry is the upgrading of China's steel enterprises trend. In addition, iron and steel construction, railway construction steel also has a better incremental. From the enterprises, listed steel companies mainly Zhongyuan special steel, Fushun Special Steel, Xining Special Steel, Daye Special Steel and other, product differentiation, more optimistic about the is Gaona, Fushun Special Steel, basically belong to the same category, high temperature alloy for ratio. Daye Special Steel is a veteran of the steel special steel enterprise, mainly used in machinery and auto market, have a very high share, machinery industry order pressure this year is larger, but the car to maintain steady growth, the three companies should is a star enterprise in the industry.
Along the way, the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and other topics of investment opportunities will give Pu steel production of listing Corporation to bring many orders and earnings performance Chen Li believes that the specific is not good to quantify, but the overall upward trend is clear.
Chen Li: along the road to the future development of a two direction, a northwest, dominated by railway investment, a sea, shipbuilding and container order. Beijing, Tianjin and is the most promising, but also the theme of the national strategy, the entire North China region in the domestic leading position, there are a lot of projects in the drive, such as Beijing second airport construction, Beijing City railway construction, which greatly promote regional steel demand. Earnings estimates, to look at the cost of iron ore, and the real steel price of the comprehensive factors. Comprehensive point of view, China's steel prices at a low level, mine frame is low by historical standards, if production can be effectively controlled, the premise of overweight in the investment, stimulating demand, steel prices rise, the overall order and profits should is upward as a whole.
A background of central enterprises the shares of Wuhan Iron and steel, Baosteel, SGIS and whether the company energy to get out of the industry downturn? Chen Li, if to efficient use of resources, to achieve "area of the second". In terms of the industry is a good thing in the integration.
Chen Li: the background of central enterprises is the focus of market attention and the integration of state-owned enterprises is expected to as a pacesetter, first integrated enterprise. If integration is in place to solve the market disorder competition, in the case of the expansion of the scale effect, the integration is very meaningful. At present, the entire steel plate PE in 81 times or so, PB city net rate is about 2.7 times, there is a need for further integration of the entire industry is a good competitive landscape.
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